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Odds preliminary knowledge

Average odds: The average of the winning and losing odds offered by multiple bookmakers for a game.

Outcome Probability: The probability of each game result, the probability of each game in the three dimensions of winning, drawing and losing, generally the gaming company will analyze this probability based on various information, but it is unknown whether it is announced or not.
For example, Manchester United VS West Ham United, the probability of appearing in the three results of winning, drawing and losing may be 60%:20%:20%.

Payout ratio: The main profit method of the gambling company is to balance the margin, that is to say, after the betting volume in the three directions of winning, drawing and losing is balanced, the actual compensation amount of the gaming company = Paper payout - commission commission. At present, the commission ratio of most gambling companies is around 10%, and this site will fix several payout rates for players to choose in the follow-up calculation.

Standard deviation: Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out the mean of a set of data is. A larger standard deviation means that most values are farther from their mean; a smaller standard deviation means that the values are closer to the mean.
For example, two sets of numbers {0,5,9,14} and {5,6,8,9} both have a mean of 7, but the second set has a smaller standard deviation.
The smaller the standard deviation, the more clustered the data; the larger the standard deviation, the more discrete the data.

Standard deviation ratio: There is no concept of standard deviation ratio in statistics, but considering that the standard deviation data is not intuitive enough, many players may not be able to understand its meaning and relative size, Therefore, this site uses the standard deviation divided by the average to calculate a percentage, and this percentage is used to measure whether the standard deviation data is large or small.

Impact factor: Every game will have various conditions that affect the betting company’s odds, such as whether the main players are injured or not, whether the relationship between the generals and the generals is harmonious, Whether the desire to win is strong, etc. These conditions are the factors that affect the analysis of the game by the bookmaker.

Weights: The impact of each influencing factor on the game analysis process or the game result. For example, the impact of weather factors on the game can be ignored, and the weight is 0. The main player's injury has a great impact on the game, and the weight is 10.

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Odds analysis and calculation tools

Bookmaker odds	Home win odds	Draw odds	Away win odds	add odds	delete odds	Reset
Odds combination 1:				Average payout ratio

	Home win odds	Draw odds	Away win odds
Average odds:
Odds Max:
Odds Min:
Odds difference:
Standard deviation:
Standard deviation ratio:
Outcome Probability:

The standard deviation and the standard deviation ratio reflect whether the gaming company's claims are unified, and are relatively important reference indicators. The standard deviation ratio is the ratio of the standard deviation to the average odds and is a relative value.

The odds difference reflects the bookmaker’s special view on a certain game. If the extreme value is too large or too small, it means that a certain bookmaker has a special view on a certain game. Special care should be taken in this type of match.

Result probability = bookmaker payout ratio / bookmaker odds. The probability of the result here is calculated by the average odds, so the sum of the probability of winning, drawing and losing may be greater than 100%, which is a normal phenomenon, and this value reflects the comprehensive probability of the sample.

When players choose the odds combination, it is best to choose the odds of 10-20 groups of mainstream European bookmakers for analysis, because the data of European bookmakers is actually a distribution system. There are no more than 50 companies capable of setting their own odds, and they all focus on different leagues. Most downstream companies directly obtain data from upstream, and then make slight changes according to their own needs, and do not have the ability to set their own odds.

Result Probability Correction Tool

Bookmaker odds	Home win odds	Draw odds	Away win odds		Reset
Odds combination:				Average payout ratio

	Home	Draw	Away
Outcome Probability:	%	%	%	Payout ratio:0.9	Add factor	Delete factor	Reset
Odds factor 1:

	Home	Draw	Away
Modified Probability:
Corrected True Odds:

After the gaming company analyzes the probability of winning or losing the game, it will not reflect the real odds on the odds, but use psychology to issue a set of virtual odds according to market demand, so it is simple to analyze the odds and related data. Statistical analysis, limited effect.

The function of this probability correction tool is to digitize the detailed information that some players tend to ignore, and integrate it into the odds, and then convert a probability and odds that are closer to the real situation based on the customer's understanding of the fundamentals.

For example: If there is news about Benzema's injury news recently, the dealer will use this news to make a bet, deliberately increase the odds, and create the illusion that Real Madrid is invincible. In fact, Real Madrid can win the game completely, which requires customers to Subtract this market-making factor from your own understanding of the game, and then form a new set of probabilities and odds for easy betting.

The calculation method of the new probability in this tool adopts a professional mathematical model, and the weight value is divided into 10 parts on average, and increases according to the increase of the weight value. When multiple factors work together, the weight value is the most important variable, and players need to carefully consider it when using tools.

Odds preliminary knowledge

Odds analysis and calculation tools

Result Probability Correction Tool

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